Wednesday ushers in more playoff excitement as the NLCS moves to Queens. The Mets last hosted an NLCS game in 2015, when they defeated the Cubs in Game 2. Daniel Murphy homered, continuing his streak from that series. Anticipate a lively atmosphere at Citi Field in 2024. The last home game these fans experienced featured Francisco Lindor’s grand slam.
It’ll be fun, that’s for sure, and a little gambling can be done as well …
Dodgers at Mets, 8:08 p.m. ET
RHP Walker Buehler vs. RHP Luis Severino
Severino posted a 3.91 ERA this season. Though his performance declined in the second half, he maintained a strong 2.96 ERA at home. His two playoff starts have been shaky with a 4.50 ERA, both occurring on the road. A return home could be beneficial. He struggled against the Dodgers on June 2, 2023, but hasn’t faced them since.
Buehler had a terrible season, on the whole, but got a little better toward the end (3.31 ERA in his last three starts). His line in the playoff start (NLDS Game 3) looks brutal, but all the damage was confined to one inning and he had some pretty bad luck before the home run he gave up (which was obviously his fault). The Mets haven’t seen him this year.
The Dodgers have a talented bullpen, but it can also be exploited and we saw a little of that in Game 2.
Speaking of which, this series has already shown how capable both offenses can be. The Dodgers are averaging 5.14 runs per game in the playoffs after averaging 5.2 in the regular season. The Mets are averaging five runs a game after 4.52 in the second half.
The play: Over 7.5 runs (-115)
You can pretty easily argue this will be a relatively low-scoring game. You don’t even have to squint your way there. See above to find the info on Severino at home and how Buehler might well have turned a corner. I just can’t shake the feeling that I trust these offenses far more than I trust the starting pitchers, though, and it isn’t just that. The bullpens have been hit on occasion as well, notably the Mets’. I like to visualize possible final scores when playing an over and a 5-3 final score hits it. That doesn’t even sound high-scoring for these two teams. We’ll get there again, just like Games 1 and 2.
The play: Shohei Ohtani over 2.5 hits + runs + RBI (+115)
Have you heard the recent chatter about Ohtani’s struggles at the plate without runners on base? It’s an unusual situation that doesn’t hold much predictive value. I have a strong feeling this trend will reverse soon. Top-tier athletes are fueled by an internal drive to prove their greatness, and Ohtani’s talent suggests that things will balance out shortly. During his last visit to Citi Field on May 29, he went 2 for 5 with a home run. In his career against Severino, he’s 3 for 6 with a home run and a double.
I think he’s gonna lead the game off with a home run. If he does, we hit this prop right away.