In recent years, NBA offenses have seen consistent and significant improvement. The 2023-24 Boston Celtics showcased the most efficient offense in NBA history, scoring 122.2 points per 100 possessions. This surpassed the previous record of 118.6 points set by the 2022-23 Sacramento Kings, which in turn broke the record of 117.3 points set by the 2020-21 Brooklyn Nets. The Nets had eclipsed the 2019-20 Dallas Mavericks’ record of 115.9 points. NBA offenses have advanced so rapidly that the top offense from a decade ago, the 2014-15 Los Angeles Clippers, would have ranked 25th last season with their mark of 111.6 points per 100 possessions. Until February 2023, scoring had consistently become easier in the NBA with no apparent end in sight.
Before the All-Star break, the average team’s offensive rating according to NBA.com data was a shade above 115.2. Afterward? It dipped nearly two full points to just a hair below 113.3. That dip might seem minor on paper, but it represents a significant historical anomaly. Basketball Reference tracks the league’s annual offensive ratings, and scoring hasn’t declined that much from one season to the next since the 2011-12 season, which is an outlier in its own right as that was a lockout year. The last time it happened in a non-lockout season was the 1982-83 campaign. Scoring tends to jump by wide margins but decline. That’s a rarity, and we could all see with our own eyes why it happened.
The rules changed. Defenses were allowed to play more physically. Whistles grew rarer. Free-throw rates declined, and players who relied on free throws suddenly had to adjust their playing styles on the fly. That, for now, appears to be our new normal, and as we enter the season, it has to factor into our evaluation of all 30 offenses the league has to offer.
Let’s rank the offenses heading into the season. These rankings don’t reflect optimized offensive quality. Some teams may perform better or worse in the postseason, and some may handle injuries more effectively than others. Our goal is to predict which offenses will top the league in points scored per 100 possessions by the end of the regular season in April, considering current rosters and last season’s rule changes.
1. Dallas Mavericks
2023-24 offensive rating: 117 (points per 100 possessions)
2023-24 offensive ranking: No. 8
Last year’s Mavericks took off when their deadline trades fixed a flawed defense. This year’s roster, with Klay Thompson presumably replacing Derrick Jones Jr. in the starting lineup, is going to tilt more toward offense. Fortunately, they’re going to be incredible at it. The formula is straightforward. Dallas has the best pick-and-roll creator in the NBA in Luka Doncic. The four remaining starters fit flawlessly. Kyrie Irving is among the NBA’s best secondary creators. Klay Thompson is among its best movement shooters. Dereck Lively is among its best rim-runners and a sorely underrated short-roll playmaker. P.J. Washington does a bit of everything. The bench is where that defensive dip should be made up, but Jaden Hardy appeared more than ready to provide meaningful bench scoring in the postseason. Dallas may eventually decide it prefers starting a defensive-oriented lineup and sub Naji Marshall in for Thompson, but for now, this offense is going to be incredible. Doncic was the rare superstar whose numbers actually got better after last season’s rule changes, and his offensive supporting cast has taken another step forward.
2. Boston Celtics
2023-24 offensive rating: 122.2
2023-24 offensive ranking: No. 1
The Celtics would be ranked No. 1 if Kristaps Porzingis were healthy at the start of the season. Unfortunately, he isn’t, giving Dallas just enough room to claim the top spot. While Boston lacks the offensive skill diversity that Dallas possesses, the Celtics compensate with their exceptional shooting. They led the NBA in 3-point attempts by a significant margin last season and nearly topped the league in shooting percentage. Interestingly, last year’s offense was slightly more efficient without Porzingis. However, even if the Celtics excel with their five other core players, the reality of an NBA season is that more injuries will inevitably occur, and not having Porzingis to cushion those setbacks is a significant disadvantage.